President Donald Trump took to Truth Social on Sunday to announce a deal with Iran and declare the Strait of Hormuz officially open for business — signing off with the words: "Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!"
The ships, however, are not moving.
Ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic shows that as many as 580 vessels are currently sitting idle inside the Gulf, with only seven ships recorded passing through the strait since the deal was announced.
Iran effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz following US and Israeli strikes on 28 February — cutting off a waterway that normally carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies.
Three major obstacles are keeping captains anchored.
1. Nobody Wants to Be First Through the Door
The simplest reason ships are not moving is that no one wants to take the gamble.
Captains, shipowners and insurers are watching closely — but few are willing to make the first crossing. Iran has fired on vessels attempting to pass without permission since the closure began. The US Navy, which imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports in April, disabled nine ships during that period, including firing Hellfire missiles into engine rooms.
Trump announced the "immediate removal" of the US naval blockade on Sunday — then walked it back, confirming it stays until a formal deal is signed.
Satellite imagery from 15 June shows four US warships still stationed near the blockade line at the entrance to the Gulf of Oman.
Analysts at trade firm Kpler describe the mood among shipowners as a firm "wait and see." Many captains remember April, when Iran's foreign minister declared the strait open — only for it to close again the very next day, forcing more than 33 vessels to reverse mid-transit while several reported coming under fire.
2. The Mine Problem Nobody Can Rush
Even if every captain felt safe tomorrow, the water itself is not clear.
Iran threatened early in the conflict to deploy floating sea mines throughout the Gulf if its territory was attacked. Both the US and international maritime authorities have since confirmed that mines are present. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a Senate committee that Iran had "mined large segments of Hormuz."
Clearing those mines is not a quick operation. Experts estimate it could take anywhere from 30 days to six months — and no one knows exactly how many are out there or precisely where they sit.
Minesweeper vessels must move at just two to three knots to safely scan the seabed. They then need to clear a wide enough corridor for ships to travel in both directions simultaneously.
The UK and France have both dispatched naval vessels to assist. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged on Tuesday that the UK would play its "full part" in reopening the strait. The British support ship RFA Lyme Bay, fitted with mine-hunting equipment, was tracked near Cyprus heading toward the region.
The southern route near Oman appears relatively clear, and that is expected to be the first corridor opened for traffic.
3. Iran Wants to Charge a Fee — and Nobody Agrees on How
Here is where it gets politically messy.
The Strait of Hormuz has historically been free to use. Unlike man-made canals such as Suez or Panama, ships have passed through without payment. The US position is that free passage is protected under customary international law.
Iran sees it differently. During the conflict, Tehran established what it called the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" — a body it said would manage passage permits through the waterway.
Trump said the strait would reopen "toll free" under the new deal. But Iran's state media reported that under the agreement, Tehran and Oman would jointly manage the strait — with possible "service fees" for ships in transit.
Who collects the fees? Who enforces payment? What do Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iraq think about it? None of that has been settled yet.
Analysts warn that any new payment structure could act as a chokehold on daily traffic volume — slowing the pace at which global shipping normalises even after the physical danger is gone.
What This Means for Oil Prices
Global markets have been pricing in the possibility of a Hormuz reopening for weeks. Oil prices have already pulled back from their conflict highs. But a full, sustained drop in prices depends on tanker traffic actually resuming at scale.
For context on how the Hormuz closure has already moved global oil markets, see our earlier analysis on oil prices dropping on US-Iran optimism and the Strait of Hormuz oil disruption breakdown.
The commercial shipping system, as one Kpler analyst put it, "is likely to normalise gradually" — even if the political picture clears up faster.
For now, 580 ships are sitting in the Gulf, engines running, waiting for someone else to go first.
Reported by the WealthBlueprint NewsDesk. Sources: MarineTraffic ship-tracking data, Kpler trade analytics, International Maritime Organization, US Central Command.