It keeps falling.

Brent crude tumbled another five per cent to $94.61 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, took an even bigger hit — down 5.9 per cent to $88.31.

That's two consecutive days of steep declines. And Nigerian drivers should be paying attention.

The Peace Premium

Markets are now pricing in a genuine possibility of détente between Washington and Tehran. The Strait of Hormuz — which moves one-fifth of the world's crude — has been the flashpoint. If that channel reopens fully, supply jumps and prices sink further.

President Trump called the talks "largely negotiated." Secretary Rubio confirmed progress, though he warned that any deal allowing Iran to toll vessels would be a non-starter.

Traders heard one word: progress. And they sold aggressively.

What This Means for Nigerian Petrol Pumps

The landing lag is real. Nigerian refineries and depots bought crude weeks ago at higher prices — some when Brent was above $105. That expensive inventory has to clear before cheaper crude flows through to pump prices.

But here's the math. If Brent stays below $95 for another week, landing costs drop. MEMAN's latest gantry price at Dangote Refinery was N1,275 per litre based on higher crude. A sustained $10 drop in Brent typically shaves N150-N200 off pump prices within 10 to 14 days.

For consumers feeling the squeeze at N1,300-N1,400 per litre, relief could come by mid-June — if the peace talks hold.

The Cautious Take

The deal isn't signed. Iran could walk away. Trump could demand more. Oil markets have been fooled before.

But for now, the trend is unmistakable. Oil is heading down. And for Nigerians paying over N1,300 per litre, that's the best news in months.

A Bloomberg report noted that hedge funds have slashed bullish oil bets by 40 per cent in two weeks. The International Energy Agency warned that a full Hormuz reopening could add 2 million barrels daily — enough to push Brent toward $85.

For investors tracking commodity cycles, the money market investing guide explains safe havens during volatility, while the passive investing case study shows how to build wealth regardless of price swings.

The Bottom Line

Cheaper petrol is not guaranteed. But the path is getting shorter.