The guns are going quiet. But the economic pain may linger for months.
A framework peace deal between the United States and Iran has raised hopes of falling oil prices, cheaper food, and relief on interest rates — but experts say the road back to normal will be long and bumpy.
The Strait of Hormuz: Open, But Not Yet Flowing
US President Donald Trump was emphatic on Sunday.
"Let the oil flow!" he posted on social media. By Monday, he declared that ships were already moving — "loaded up with oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz" — which he described as "totally safe, secure and pristine."
The reality on the ground tells a more cautious story.
According to ship tracking platform MarineTraffic, only two vessels with active trackers had exited the waterway since Sunday — a bulk carrier and a single tanker.
The strait has been effectively closed to most commercial shipping since 28 February, when the US-Israeli conflict with Iran began. Hundreds of vessels remain stranded in the Gulf, held back by the threat of sea mines and drone strikes.
Denmark's Maersk, the world's second-largest shipping line, has five ships stuck in the Gulf. The company said it was too early to assess how the agreement would affect its logistics — and that operations in the region remain unchanged for now.
Germany's Hapag-Lloyd has four vessels trapped in the strait. The firm hopes to move them out over the weekend, once the deal is formally signed and remaining mines are cleared.
Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, put it plainly.
He said it would "take some time for oil flows through the Strait to return to pre-war levels" — even with safe passage guaranteed.
Tankers are in the wrong positions. Oil production and refining facilities need time to ramp back up. And the question of insurance costs for ships navigating the strait remains unresolved.
What Happens to Oil Prices?
Before the war, Brent crude sat just below $70 a barrel.
At its peak during the conflict, it surged to around $120 a barrel — a near-doubling that sent petrol, diesel, and jet fuel prices soaring across the globe.
Following news of the framework deal, Brent crude fell to $83.55 a barrel.
| Period | Brent Crude Price |
|---|---|
| Pre-war (February 2026) | ~$70/barrel |
| Peak during conflict | ~$120/barrel |
| Post-deal announcement | $83.55/barrel |
But Florence Schmit, senior energy strategist at Rabobank, urged caution.
She told the BBC there was a "strong possibility that we'll see a lot of volatility" before the deal is formally signed on Friday.
"Some things are not confirmed on both sides — important things: we don't know if the deal will be signed," she said.
She also raised a pointed question: the current agreement covers only 60 days of strait access.
"What happens after that? What if the Iranians want to re-insert a toll system? A full-scale peace agreement could still be a long way off."
Schmit said that if a full ceasefire holds, oil market normality — including the return of 26 daily crude tankers through the strait — "could return by the end of the year."
She added that prices could dip below $80 a barrel in the short term on sentiment alone, before averaging in the mid-$80s by year-end as markets reassess the reality on the ground.
What About Food Prices?
Cheaper oil does not just mean cheaper petrol. It also means cheaper fertiliser — and that is where the food story gets complicated.
Fertiliser is a by-product of oil and gas. During the conflict, fertiliser costs soared, squeezing farmers globally and pushing food prices higher.
Maurizio Carulli, global energy analyst at Quilter Cheviot, said the ceasefire "should help ease the immediate pressure on fertiliser markets" — but the relief will not be instant.
He noted that roughly a third of traded fertiliser and major volumes of natural gas used for nitrogen-based fertiliser flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
"Lingering damage to energy infrastructure will take time to repair," he said.
There is an even harder truth: the crop season has already started in several parts of the world.
Resuming deliveries of nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers now will arrive too late for crops already in the ground — meaning this season's food supply has already been affected, regardless of when the strait reopens.
Yara, one of the world's biggest fertiliser firms, said the situation remained uncertain and that farmers may "require targeted support to manage ongoing volatility" in the short term.
Jet fuel — another oil by-product — has already begun to respond. NWE jet fuel fell to $1,033 per tonne, down from a peak of around $1,840, though still well above the pre-war level of $831 per tonne.
For Nigerians navigating high food prices in the meantime, our guide on cheap healthy meals for one person and overlooked expenses bleeding your money offer practical ways to manage the squeeze.
Interest Rates: The Surprise Winner?
One area where the deal could have an outsized effect is interest rates.
The surge in energy costs triggered by the war pushed inflation higher across the globe — forcing central banks to rethink planned rate cuts.
In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England had been widely expected to cut rates this year before the war changed everything. Rate hike predictions quickly replaced rate cut expectations as energy costs surged.
Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said the picture is already shifting.
"Just last week, markets were pricing in two rate hikes by early 2027," he said. "The probabilities have now shifted to just one rate hike by December and then potentially no change for at least the first half of 2027."
Lower rate expectations mean more business confidence, more consumer spending, and a potential thaw in the property market — which had gone cold for sellers in recent months.
For investors trying to position around these macro shifts, our guide on real estate vs stocks for beginners breaks down how rate changes affect both asset classes.
The Bottom Line
The US-Iran deal is the most significant economic breakthrough in months.
Oil is falling. Fertiliser pressure may ease. Interest rate hawks are standing down. But every expert interviewed agrees on one thing: normalisation takes time.
The Strait of Hormuz may be open in name by Friday. Whether it is fully operational — with tankers moving freely, insurance back to normal, and oil facilities at full capacity — is a question that may not be answered until the end of the year.
In the meantime, consumers, farmers, and businesses around the world are being asked to do what they have done for the past three months — wait.
Sources: BBC, Reuters, Bloomberg. Analyst quotes from Capital Economics, Rabobank, Quilter Cheviot, and AJ Bell.
Reported by the WealthBlueprint NewsDesk | June 15, 2026