Oil keeps falling. But is the peace real?
Brent crude tumbled another 3.7 per cent to $95.3 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate took an even bigger hit — down 5.6 per cent to $88.70.
The trigger? Iranian state TV said it had seen a draft of an initial, unofficial framework for an agreement with the United States. The deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has taken more than 14 million barrels per day of Middle East oil supply offline, according to the International Energy Agency.
But Here's the Catch
The White House called it a "complete fabrication."
"The MOU they 'released' is not true," the White House's Rapid Response account posted on X. "Nobody should believe what Iranian state media is putting out. Facts Matter."
Iranian media claims the memorandum outlines US military withdrawal and an end to the naval blockade, with Hormuz traffic management handled by Iran in cooperation with Oman.
What's Actually Happening
Tanker traffic through the strait has picked up. That's real. But the deal? Not signed. Not even close.
President Trump has been clear: the Strait of Hormuz will be open to everyone, controlled by no country. No discussions about easing sanctions on Tehran.
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said: "President Trump will only make a good deal for the American people, which must ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon."
What This Means for Nigeria
For Nigerian motorists paying N1,300-N1,400 per litre, falling crude prices are good news — if they hold. But this market is being driven by headlines, not fundamentals. One tweet from the White House. One leak from Iranian media. Prices swing 5 per cent either way.
For businesses navigating volatile commodity prices, the money market investing guide explains safe havens during uncertainty, while the passive investing case study shows how to build wealth without timing oil swings.
The Bottom Line
Oil is down on hope. But hope isn't a contract. Until both sides sign, every dip could reverse overnight.
A Bloomberg report noted that hedge funds have turned net short on crude for the first time since the conflict began. The International Energy Agency warned that a prolonged closure of Hormuz could push prices back above $120.