Nigeria's trade balance has swung dramatically in the country's favour — but the engine driving it is all too familiar.

The country recorded a trade surplus of N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, a staggering 340.88 per cent leap over the N1.7 trillion surplus posted in Q4 2025.

The figure also sits 46 per cent above the N5.17 trillion surplus recorded in the same period last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) foreign trade in goods statistics report.

What Drove the Surge

The NBS attributed the jump to two key forces: a sharp decline in petroleum product imports and a significant rise in crude oil exports.

Total exports in Q1 2026 reached N21.17 trillion, representing 60.85 per cent of total trade — up 2.77 per cent from Q1 2025 and 11.63 per cent above Q4 2025 figures.

Crude oil dominated the export picture, accounting for N11.2 trillion — or 52.92 per cent of all exports. The remaining N9.97 trillion came from non-crude sources.

Imports Fall Sharply

On the import side, Nigeria's total import bill came in at N13.62 trillion — down 18.17 per cent from N16.64 trillion in Q1 2025, and 21.05 per cent lower than Q4 2025's N17.25 trillion.

Agricultural imports saw a steep decline, falling to N827.72 billion — a 20.09 per cent drop year-on-year and a 42.39 per cent plunge compared to Q4 2025.

The Trade Snapshot

IndicatorQ1 2026Q1 2025Q4 2025
Trade SurplusN7.55 trillionN5.17 trillionN1.7 trillion
Total ExportsN21.17 trillionN20.6 trillionN18.95 trillion
Total ImportsN13.62 trillionN16.64 trillionN17.25 trillion
Crude Oil ExportsN11.2 trillion——
Non-Oil ExportsN3.19 trillion——

The Problem Beneath the Headline

Strip away crude oil and the picture dims considerably.

Non-oil products contributed just N3.19 trillion — a mere 15.05 per cent of total exports. That share has remained stubbornly flat, exposing Nigeria's continued dependence on crude as its primary earner.

Agricultural exports actually declined 31.2 per cent year-on-year, falling from N1.7 trillion in Q1 2025 to N1.17 trillion — a worrying signal for a sector many had hoped would diversify the export base.

Bright Spots in Raw Materials and Minerals

Not all non-oil categories disappointed.

Raw material exports climbed to N1.53 trillion, up 46.83 per cent from Q1 2025 — though analysts caution this could reflect either increased local production or a reduction in domestic sourcing.

Solid minerals exports surged 74.63 per cent year-on-year to N102.80 billion, while manufactured goods exports edged up 2.79 per cent to N302.64 billion — modest but positive progress.

For a deeper look at how Nigeria's economy is being reshaped by trade and investment dynamics, our guide on Africa's 12 fastest-growing economies offers essential context — and our breakdown of the Dangote Refinery's impact on diesel prices shows how domestic production is already shifting Nigeria's import dependency.

The Bottom Line

A 341 per cent surge in trade surplus is headline-worthy — but it is largely a crude oil story.

Until non-oil exports break decisively above 15 per cent of total trade, Nigeria's foreign trade strength remains as volatile as the oil market itself.

Data sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Q1 2026 Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics Report. Additional context from The Guardian Nigeria.

Reported by the WealthBlueprint NewsDesk | June 9, 2026