If you have a flight booked this year, brace yourself — the bill is going up.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has warned that airlines worldwide will spend an additional $100 billion on jet fuel in 2026, with aviation fuel prices expected to surge 70 per cent across the year.
The trigger: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March, which choked off global oil supplies and sent fuel costs spiralling across the aviation industry.
Industry Profits Set to Halve
The financial hit is severe. IATA projects that global airline industry profits will halve — from an estimated $46 billion to just $23 billion in 2026.
Speaking at IATA's annual summit in Rio de Janeiro, Director General Willie Walsh was blunt about what comes next for passengers.
"High oil prices will inevitably mean higher ticket prices. There's just no way to avoid that," Walsh said, as quoted by The Guardian UK.
Walsh noted that industry polling showed passengers are already braced for higher fares — but cautioned: "The big unknown is how long travellers and shippers can tolerate the higher costs of connectivity."
Who Gets Hit Hardest
Not all passengers will feel the pain equally.
Sean Doyle, Chief Executive of British Airways, said long-haul and business travellers will bear the steepest fare increases, given the higher fuel burn on premium routes.
"No getting away from it — if fuel goes up, fares have to go up," Doyle said on the sidelines of the conference.
Short-haul leisure travellers may be shielded longer, as price-sensitive routes face more competitive pressure to hold fares down.
Around half of passengers surveyed by IATA said they were prepared to spend substantially more if fares track the price of oil — a finding Walsh said "bodes well" for a strong northern summer travel season.
Survival on the Line for Some Carriers
Walsh described the operating environment as a "challenging and unpredictable time" with "wafer-thin margins" — and warned that for some airlines, the fuel shock could be existential.
"It's going to be very challenging and for a lot of airlines the increase in the fuel bill is potentially existential," he said.
He stopped short of calling it a crisis on the scale of Covid, noting that concerns about fuel shortages have eased and that traffic is still up 2 per cent globally.
Nigeria: Still One of the World's Most Expensive Aviation Markets
Amid the global fuel storm, IATA used its Rio summit to once again flag Nigeria as one of the most expensive countries in the world to operate an airline.
Kamil Al-Awadhi, IATA's Regional Vice President for Africa and the Middle East, acknowledged efforts by Aviation Minister Festus Keyamo to reform the sector — but said Nigerian carriers still face crippling cost pressures.
The numbers are stark. The Nigerian government imposes at least 27 different charges on airlines operating in the country.
Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport in Abuja ranks as the most expensive airport in Africa — with Murtala Muhammed International Airport in Lagos coming in second, according to IATA research.
Al-Awadhi called on ECOWAS member states to implement a proposed 25 per cent reduction in aviation taxes and charges — a move he said would lower travel costs, boost passenger traffic, and improve airline competitiveness across West Africa.
"Africa has put itself in a place where it cannot help its own — expensive fuel, excessive charges, leasing and insurance through the roof. The airlines need to be financially viable too," he said.
The Fare Hike Timeline
| Route Type | Expected Fare Impact | Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| Long-haul / Business | Highest pass-through | Immediate–Q3 2026 |
| Short-haul / Leisure | Lower pass-through | Later in 2026 |
| Nigerian routes | Compounded by local charges | Already underway |
For context on what's driving the global oil disruption behind these costs, see our earlier report on the Strait of Hormuz oil disruption and how oil prices dropped on US-Iran optimism.
The Bottom Line
The era of cheap flights — already under pressure — is facing its sharpest test yet.
With fuel costs up 70 per cent, profits halving, and Nigeria's airports ranked among Africa's most expensive, the squeeze on airlines and passengers alike is set to intensify through 2026.
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